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2d Dynamic Systems
Indeed,
I tremble for my planet, when I reflect that Nature is inflexible: that her
response to our abuse cannot sleep forever.
~ Thomas
Jefferson
As indicated in the Synopsis,
there are deep and incurable flaws in a few key elements of our evolved
systems of independent national governance where national interest can
trump any collective initiative to deal with whole-world issues than have
been suggested within meetings of the United Nations. It is the national level of a relatively
few countries, such as the G8 collective, that greatly influence the
socioeconomic political management of modern human civilization in general
– and their guiding quest is everlasting economic growth – the impossible
dream.
Books by Jarrod Diamond and a few others
illustrated collapsed societies of the past. It appears there never has been a society
intentionally designed to be long-term sustainable by regulating its
activities in order to sustain available resources. If any society had established such a
system, that would be classified as a basic dynamic system.
Today we observe The
Tragedy of the Commons being played out, as
humans continue harvesting the remains of the global commons on our small blue dot home.
This chapter is to provide readers a common
basic understanding of dynamic
systems, and why and how systems can lead us toward balance and
sustainability. This overview starts
with a block diagram of system requirements and illustrates just how common
systems really are; you not only use systems every day but your body is a
system and is comprised of many semi-autonomous sub-systems.
The dictionary defines dynamic as a noun, a dynamic – a force, or dynamic
equilibrium; or an underlying cause of change. It is also an adjective meaning powerful,
and able to make continuous and productive change. A system is an assemblage of parts in
which dynamic actions occur. A
system displays synergy, meaning
that its usefulness, or value, of the whole is greater than the value of
the sum of its parts. Systems range
from very simple ones with few parts (or few people) to highly complex,
such as biological systems with imbedded sub-systems, or systems of Gaia
that form Mother Nature as we
know her. A few other
words commonly used when describing a system are: regulate, feedback (positive or negative), energy flow, goal, quiescent point (at
rest, or having reached the desired state - goal), range, limits, rate of change and optimum.
Organizations and Systemic thinkers
The
Systems Dynamics Society [R1] is an
international, non-profit organization devoted to encouraging the
development and use of system dynamics and systems-thinking. The organization is based on the work of
Jay Forrester whose early experience with electromechanical systems led him
into expand those ideas toward developing systems-thinking in many other
areas, including soft systems.
Forrester’s work was instrumental in approaches and techniques used
by the team of Donella and Denis Meadows, the
researchers with MIT who were commissioned by the Club Of Rome [GL]
to generate the graphical representations that appeared in their seminal
‘72 book, Limits To Growth. Their
graphs showed what may globally unfold over time with various scenarios and
events. They started with population
levels and growth rates and specific resources levels from historical
trends up to their present. And then
they projected interactions beyond, for about 100 years. The word, cybernetics [R2] is often
associated with systems-thinking because the origin of the word means, the art of steering – which is
exactly what leaders of Spaceship
Earth must do to as they steer us toward our goal of BDG at 3D-Optimum
[GL]
rate.
The web
page of the Systems Dynamics Society
makes reference to many systems thinkers, some of
them referenced in this book. A few
are: Denis Meadows, Gregory Bateson, Kenneth Boulding,
and Stafford Beer. Their web page
has an excellent section describing basic systems components, copied in
Figure 2 below. All of these
components are integral parts of the suggest BDG design:
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System structure
(courtesy
of Dynamic Systems Society)
http://www.systemdynamics.org/what-is-s/
These ideas are captured in
Forrester’s (1969) organizing framework for system
structure:
Ø
Goal
Ø
Observed condition
Ø
Discrepancy
Ø
Desired action
Figure
2
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Systemic Structures
Like all good systemic structures, both the mechanical and soft
systems, described later, all have the structural components listed
here. (Your government does
not.) A little discussion on each of
these is in order.
·
Closed Boundary
To see a picture of Earth taken from space, immediately gives the
picture that spaceship Earth’s boundary is our protective atmosphere. As Carl Sagan reminds us, our only home
is just, A small blue dot. Beyond this, we
appear to be hanging in space, all alone.
Energy flow, in and out, seems to be our only constant cosmic
visitor.
In systems-thinking, the closed-boundary idea is an important
big-picture means of visualizing both systems and subsystems as relatively
autonomous as far as internal functions are concerned. Many functions are performed with no
external input. However, each system
will have some dependence on information from another system. Its output may provide essential data to
another system. Therefore, they are
essentially closed, and yet interdependent with other systems in some
ways. States or provinces are to a
large degree autonomous. And yet, in
some areas they are subordinate to the federal government, while being
superior to semi-autonomous counties or large cities. Our body is to a large degree a fully
autonomous system, and yet to sustain ourselves, we need the fruits of Gaia
– air, food and water. And the heart
and other organs operate semi-autonomously doing whatever they were groomed
to do through evolution.
o
Feedback Loops
Each dynamic system has a means of measuring its output, and part of
that output is fed back into the input control criteria in order to
increase or decrease the instantaneous output that drives toward the target
level or goal.
§ Level and Rates
Feedback error, or signal, is a measure of the difference between
actual condition and the desired condition (goal). The feedback information must consider
both the level of the corrective action needed, and the rate at which the system
is to making the corrective action.
The rate of approaching target is another consideration in some
systems.
Ø Goal
As the New York Yankee catcher Yogi Berra famously stated, If you don’t
know where you are goin’ that’s where you’ll end
up! And that is our problem
today. Other than infinite growth,
the corporate governance default goal, human civilization does not have a
viable defined goal. Even your home
toilet has a goal, as discussed later.
3D-Optimum [GL]: The
pinnacle goal of the BDG processes is to eventually reduce human activity
to that which can be sustained within the Gaian renewing flows of
nature.
Ø Observed Condition
Regarding the Gaian system that sustains us, there are very large
error signals. Observed conditions
indicate the planet’s systems of life are significantly different now, as
compared to before the human footprint grew so large over the past few
centuries. Lester Brown, David
Suzuki, the Ecological Footprint
organization, and dozens of other individuals and organizations give
reports on the state of the land, the water and our fellow species that now
indicate our whole system of life is in a state of rapid decline. The growth paradigm of today has no means
of integrating this dire information into vitally-needed sociopolitical
heading change.
Ø Discrepancy
The amplitude of error signal determines the level of corrective
feedback.
Ø Desired Action
Desired action is to establish feedback on elements of human activity
that will dynamically guide the BDG societies on a course toward 3D-Optimum
at the maximum rate of change that functioning human societies can
tolerate.
<<>>
Even though the world around us functions in
dynamic rhythms, relatively few people think in systems dynamics terms.
It is not taught in high school curriculum or in college unless one
specializes in an area dependent on systems analysis. Some holistic thinkers consider this void
in basic learning to be a fault with our basic, silo-organized education
system.
Hard System (In text
below, common systems terms will be in italics for clarity)
Systems are all around us. For example we don’t often think of the
dynamic systemic interactions of our home toilet. It has a float to operate a water valve
that regulates water flow to fill the tank to a
predetermined level – the goal of
the fill sub-system. To put this another way, the float provides informational feedback regarding the water level
to the regulator (valve) which
responds to this feedback
information by regulating the
water inflow. Since the water is under pressure, this
represents the system energy
source. The float and the valve are
relatively autonomous sub-systems
of the whole toilet. When you flush,
gravity energizes the flow into
the bowl up to a point when dynamic
trip action occurs and the kinetic
energy of water into the drain sucks out the remainder. And then the refill cycle starts and the
tank fills toward the predetermined level where the float regulator slows the rate of flow,
and finally shuts off the valve at target level - goal. One should never
underestimate the systemic wisdom of the closed system called toilet.
Perhaps it is sitting in the relaxing the aura of this wisdom that
cause people to often have creative ideas while using it J.
Another
example is a home heating system. The source heat energy flow is regulated by a thermostat that you
adjust for desired temperature.
While this seems simple enough, within the overall heating system
are sub-systems such as an electric motor or two, each internally regulated to operate at a specific
speed. The thermostat is the key
temperature regulatory controller
which contains active components - a bimetal metal strip designed to bend
with temperature-change in order to switch on or off an electrical
controller that gates the heat energy from burning oil or gas to your home.
And the temperature point between off/on can be controlled by you – the
temperature that you set as the system
goal. The thermostat,
the fan motor, the fuel pump, the relays, are all relatively
autonomous sub-systems of the
overall heating systems.
Anyone
living in a modern society uses a variety of systems every day. An interesting example of a fairly
complex subsystem within large aircraft is the automatic pilot. It is designed to control the aircraft,
often more smoothly and efficiently that the pilot. An aircraft autopilot deals with pitch,
yaw, roll and height. The aircraft
has sensors that provide the autopilot these data, and also the rate of
change of these data. The autopilot
computer deals with this information to operate the aircraft ailerons,
rudder and elevator in ways that produce acceptable coordinated corrective
action of the aircraft position in space using all these data
categories. Control surfaces are
usually activated by hydraulic or electric actuators. The engines are energized by fossil
fuel. The engine-driven generators
energize the aircraft electrical system, which is the energy source for the
autopilot.
Here we
have a large number of semi-autonomous sub-systems working together so that
the pilot is able to direct the aircraft from A to B. When a pilot reports to ground crew that
the autopilot system has a problem, it can be quite challenging to
troubleshoot because of the high degree of interactivity of components that
cannot be replicated on the ground.
Gaian Biological
Systems
We marvel
at the reproducing capability of nature, from microbes to flowers or
us. These are Gaian systems. This is a large topic outside of the
scope of PJ.
Soft
Systems
A few
examples of the abstract-realities described in The Triad section were
banks, money, corporations or governments. These are soft-systems. For example, a bank will have a system in
place to control (regulate) interest rates paid on invested money, and also
a system to regulate interest
charges on loans. These banking
systems are designed to be responsive to feedback from the Federal Bank’s
prime rate and many other data.
Governments still regulate many elements of society but have
relinquished a significant level of corporate regulation, as described
later. But these examples fail to
meet the definition of systems for a variety of reasons including that they
have no viable long term goal. This
makes stability temporary at best.
An evolutionary improvement in manufacturing
product quality was made in the 1950s, when Edwards Deming introduced
Quality Assurance (QA) concepts to Japanese car manufacturers. Deming is an American professor and
statistician. Deming’s secret
ingredient was systems-thinking
applied to manufacturing processes.
One change was to enable maximum local autonomy of the assembly line
worker groups by inviting them to participate in producing the step-by-step
written manufacturing instructions that they follow (greater
autonomy). Quite often their
hands-on experience gave insightful, time-saving steps that gave feedback to the engineers of the Production Control department. Also, instead of having someone from the Inspection Department verify product
quality at certain stages, every assembly worker was given greater
responsibility for the quality output of their section. Daily statistical data of product quality
data was posted in all assembly stage areas as feedback, so that all workers could view the results. This influenced worker pride and
satisfaction within their increasingly autonomous
group. Similar systems
approaches were developed in all stages of the manufacturing
processes. Manufacturing companies
using these techniques change from having just a Quality Control department, to being a Quality Assurance based company. Because local inspection was done at each
stage by fellow assembly workers; and their work ethics improved because
greater autonomy gave each
section a sense of pride and responsibility. Human nature was considered as part of
the overall system to reach the goal
of a quality product.
The results were spectacular. Japanese manufactured products after WWII
were considered poor quality imitations.
After Deming’s new dynamic
systems approaches, the quality improved rapidly, and soon Japanese
cars and other products were considered among the world’s best. The principles Deming introduced are now
used throughout the progressive industrial world. The techniques have been enshrined in the
International Standards Organization (ISO)
[R3]. When a company has received an
ISO9000 approval, they are recognized has having adopted the ISO standards
of quality-regulated
manufacturing. If you buy their
product, it will be of good quality.
The reason for elaborating on corporate
quality assurance system is that the envisioned Blue Planet Governance (BPG) system of governance will use all
of these concepts. One principal
ingredient, maximum autonomy and
responsibility at the lowest practical level, is reflected within the
Regional governments who will form a chaordic
type of organization to manage global affairs. We’ll call this
organization, the United Regions (UR), perhaps to be seen as the Wheelhouse
of Spaceship Earth, a small blue dot when seen from afar.
<<<<<ó>>>>>
Back to Index: http://gaiapc.ca/PJ//BPG/1a-Index.htm
To next section MCP: http://gaiapc.ca/PJ/BPG/3a-MCP.htm
>>>
[R1]
The System Dynamics
Society has an excellent description of dynamics systems and systems thinking at their web page: http://www.systemdynamics.org/what_is_system_dynamics.html
>>
Cybernetics and Systems Thinkers
http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/csthink.html
>>
Who was Jay Forrester?
[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Wright_Forrester ]
>>
Stafford Beer http://www.metaphorum.org/
[R2]
"Cybernetics" comes from a Greek word meaning
"the art of steering".
Cybernetics is about having a goal and taking action to achieve that
goal.
Knowing whether you have reached your goal (or at least are getting closer
to it) requires "feedback",
a concept that comes from cybernetics.
http://www.pangaro.com/published/cyber-macmillan.html
>>
[R3]
ISO 9001:2008 is the standard that provides a set of
standardized requirements for a quality management system,
regardless of what the user organization does, its size, or whether it is
in the private, or public sector. It is the only standard in the family against
which organizations can be certified – although certification is
not a compulsory requirement of the standard.
http://www.iso.org/iso/iso_9000_essentials
<<End of section on dynamics>>
<<<<End
of section>>>
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